How the NAS Pensacola lawsuit could impact U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia

PENSACOLA, Fla. -- The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has still yet to comment on the lawsuit filed by the families of the victims and those wounded in the December 2019 terror attack at Naval Air Station Pensacola.

Foreign policy experts say this lawsuit could impact U.S. relations with the Kingdom moving forward.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Pensacola this week, demands the court hold the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia accountable for the terrorist actions of one of its own.

"In a sense, it's not surprising there would be a lawsuit," said International Relations Professor Dr. Jacob Shively. "What is surprising it that the Saudis allowed it to get to this point,"

Dr. Shively teaches foreign policy, grand strategy, international law and more at the University of West Florida. He says President Joe Biden's administration's response to the lawsuit will greatly impact its outcome.

"Neither the Saudis' or the Americans' governments are interested in the full collapse of the relationship by any means," Shively said. "But the Kingdom has to show they're taking this seriously. If I was advising the Saudis, I would say your best bet is to settle this suit out of court and try to talk to the U.S. administration.. say look we're trying to do the right thing here, so let's talk about our relationships regarding military aide, military sales, and that type of thing."

The United States' relationship with Saudi Arabia is mostly economic and military based.

Currently, Saudi Arabia is America's largest military arms customer, with more than $350 billion in active military contracts.

Shively anticipates those sales to decrease and to have fewer Saudi military officers coming into the U.S. if relations between the countries worsen in light of the lawsuit.

"The trade-off there is you don't have those connections and those can be useful in a time of crisis... but we will unlikely see a break in the relationship" Shively said.

The White House has yet to comment directly on the pending litigation against Saudi Arabia, but the Biden administration has demonstrated a tougher stance on the Kingdom after four years of a close relationship between former President Donald Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman

Since taking office, Biden has paused U.S. support for the Saudi Arabian military campaign in Yemen and demanded an end to the war between the Kingdom and Iran.

The imminent release of an unclassified report on the role of Prince Mohammed in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. resident, is also likely to further strain relations between the countries.

Changes to the law after 9/11 give individuals more grounds to sue a foreign country over terrorism, but the attorneys for the victims must prove the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was directly or indirectly involved in the attack.

"We think the facts are quite clear that Saudi Arabia knew of his terrorist ideologies," said Chris Paulos, counsel for the local first responders injured in the attack. "If they didn't intentionally send an Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula operative to the U.S., then they certainly did so with great indifference and recklessness in their nomination of him to the international military student program."

The families in this lawsuit face a lengthy legal battle.

Dr. Shively points out even if the court decides Saudi Arabia should be held accountable, recouping the compensation could pose another challenge.

"Certainly, these suits can be won," Shively said. "But you have to then have cooperation with the state department and the administration to try to figure out a way to actually get the compensation if you do win the case."

Saudi Arabia could also attempt to contest or ignore the ruling, depending on relations between the countries at the time.